The wait for Dakota Ditcheva has finally paid off, as she is one of the biggest one-sided betting markets in MMA history.
The undefeated British-Bulgarian will face Dutch kickboxing veteran Denise Kielholtz in the women’s flyweight co-main event on Friday, July 31, in PFL New York. The bout will be at UBS Arena below Usman Nurmagomedov’s lightweight title bout against Archie Colgan.
Ditcheva has been an all-time favorite since she first came out, and she has kept her price tight throughout fight week. The reported lines ranged from -4000 up to -8000, while Sky Bet put her at 1/40, or minus 406. While the most widely quoted line was -4000, the highest they got was -8000. Kielholtz has been on offer for considerably longer underdog rates, but odds will vary from sportsbook to sportsbook and can shift before the match.
The trust in “Dangerous” is easy to comprehend. Ditcheva brings a 15-0 pro MMA record to PFL New York. She has won all 10 of her PFL matches, nine of which were by stoppage. She is one of the promotion’s most feared finishers due to her dangerous knees, body attacks, and long-range striking.
The fight also has huge implications for the flyweight division. The PFL officially names Ditcheva as its No. 1 contender, and Kielholtz ranks at No. 6.
But don’t discount Kielholtz as an amateur fighter. “Miss Dynamite” owns a 9-5 record in his MMA career and earned his first PFL title by decision over Antonia Silvaneide. The former Bellator fighter has elite striking experience, is a very calm guy, and has the power to put in the work if you make a mistake.
A tactical fight could be based on distance. In a battle with Ditcheva, her reach, forward pressure, kicks, and punishing body work will probably be used to make sure of the exchanges. Great counter, combinations, or disruption from the clinch may be Kielholtz’s best chance.
Of course, Ditcheva is assumed to be the victor, but these odds are extremely close calls. There are markets for “method of victory” and round markets that offer different prices, but there are also other risks.
One good blow and an MMA script can be changed—and Kielholtz is coming to NYC with nothing to lose.
The odds on a bet can vary over time. Bet responsibly and don’t bet more than you can afford to lose.
